Tasmania is limping towards an election nobody wants. Here’s the state of play
- Written by: Robert Hortle, Deputy Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania
In the darkest and coldest months of the year, Tasmanians have been slogging through an election campaign no one wanted.
It’s been a curious mix of humdrum plodding laced with cyanide levels of bitterness, with the most likely result being another hung parliament.
How did we get here?
It’s a long and sordid tale, but here’s the quick version.
In early June, the Labor opposition moved a motion of no confidence in the Liberal Premier, Jeremy Rockliff. The motion passed with the support of three crossbench MPs, the Greens, and a casting vote from the speaker.
Read more: After weeks of confusion and chaos, Tasmania heads back to the polls on July 19
Rockliff refused to step aside and Opposition Leader Dean Winter ruled out doing a deal with the Greens to govern in minority, which left the Governor with no choice but to call an election just 16 months after the last.
Some Tasmanians would be forgiven for feeling a bit of election fatigue. On top of the March 2024 state election, there was the federal election on May 3, voting for three legislative council seats on May 24 and now this poll.
Trudging along the campaign trail
The vibe of the campaign has veered wildly between pedestrian and acrimonious. Candidates have struggled to connect with a disgruntled public, and a combination of the stadium saga and political mudslinging have distracted from Tasmania’s serious challenges.
Despite the election being brought about by Labor’s no confidence motion, the party seemed curiously unprepared. Its candidate announcements were slow and disjointed, and red corflutes have been greatly outnumbered by blue.
Labor’s campaign has picked up some momentum in recent weeks by following the federal party’s playbook of making big health policy announcements.
In contrast to Labor, the Liberals hit the ground running with a slew of candidate announcements. They have presented themselves as the only party with a realistic chance of winning a majority, and sought to frame Labor’s Dean Winter as a power-hungry wrecker. They have also campaigned hard on health, attempting to neutralise Labor’s traditional strength in this area.
A bevy of former federal candidates are running, which could lead to changes in personnel, if not a big shift in the distribution of seats in parliament. Ones to watch include:
Liberal’s Bridget Archer (who lost her seat of Bass in May) and Gavin Pearce (retired Braddon MP)
Labor’s Brian Mitchell, the Lyons MP who stood aside for Rebecca White
Peter George, the anti-salmon farming independent in Franklin
and Vanessa Bleyer, a two-time Greens Senate candidate running in Braddon.
The Nationals are also in the mix following the latest in a series of Tasmanian “reboots” over the past few decades. Their candidate list includes former Jacqui Lambie Network and Liberal MPs, which could create a tense and chaotic party room if they win seats.
Disappointingly, both Labor and Liberal leaders have repeatedly demanded the other side stop playing “political games”, while merrily engaging in skulduggery of their own.
Labor was indignant when the Liberals challenged the eligibility of one of their star candidates, unionist Jessica Munday.
A few days later, Rockliff was righteously outraged when Labor grandee and former premier Paul Lennon registered the business “Tasinsure” - the name of the Liberals’ proposed state-owned insurance company.
Subpar signage
It’s fair to say no one has covered themselves in glory here.
The Liberals went with “Let’s finish the job for Tasmania”. I’m sure this isn’t meant to be read as a threat, but I can’t help but hear it in Alan Rickman’s voice.
Even if we leave aside the (unintended?) menacing implications, the slogan encourages voters to wonder why the job hasn’t been finished in the previous 11 years of Liberal government.
Labor is using “A Fresh Start for Tasmania”: a cliche, but serviceably simple.
The problem is, they stretched the slogan to the point of collapse by applying it to all of their policy headings. This meant that we ended up enduring “a fresh start for cost of living relief”, “a fresh start for our society”, and so on.
A special mention to Labor’s social media ads, which had all the gravitas of a toddler demanding their turn on the playground swings.
The Greens didn’t limit themselves to one slogan. Instead, they used various taglines on the theme of “the mess made by the major parties”, or simply stated their main policy pillars: stopping the stadium, investing in health and housing, protecting the environment, and stopping privatisation.
There were also some questionable offerings from the menagerie of independents. Surely the voters are entitled to expect more from their MPs than the “familiar face in Clark” offered by former Liberal MP Elise Archer? And as an experienced journalist, I’m sure Peter George could have done better than the derivative “Time for Change”.
What can we expect?
What will Tasmanians end up with after a campaign that has been less sound and fury and more white noise and niggle?
It looks like more of the same.
Polling shows that the two major parties are on the nose, particularly with younger voters. Labor and Liberal are fairly aligned on some of the headline issues that divide the electorate, including the stadium and salmon farming.
All this points to no party winning a majority of the 35 seats.
If this happens, the convention is that the incumbent premier initially remains in office. They can have a crack at cobbling together enough support from the crossbench to form a minority government, which might then be tested on the floor of parliament through a motion of no confidence.
Or, the incumbent premier can resign and advise the governor to ask someone else to try to form government. The convention is that this would be the person most likely to command the confidence of the lower house – usually the leader of the opposition.
Minority governments can come in lots of different shapes and sizes, from loose “confidence and supply” agreements to more formal power-sharing coalitions.
Both the Liberals and Labor will face big challenges if they are given the opportunity to form minority government.
The Liberal Party has its nose ahead in most polls. However, several of the crossbench MPs the previous Liberal government relied on for support voted in favour of the no confidence motion in Rockliff.
Most of these MPs are likely to be re-elected, and will be wary of doing deals that essentially put in place the same government that they recently helped to bring down.
Labor have backed themselves into a corner by repeatedly ruling out working with the Greens. This would leave them needing to negotiate with a diverse array of crossbench MPs. Depending on the final distribution of seats, this might not secure them enough votes on the floor of parliament.
If – as seems likely – Tasmania ends up with another hung parliament, it will fall to our MPs to move beyond point scoring and gamesmanship. We urgently need budget repair, alongside ambitious reforms in health, housing, education, sustainability and productivity.
Here’s hoping that the next government is willing to collaborate and compromise – for the good of the state and to restore trust in our political system.
Correction: This piece has been updated to better reflect the constitutional proceedings in the event of another hung parliament.
Authors: Robert Hortle, Deputy Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania
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