View from The Hill: It’s a chilly campaign for Matt Canavan in Farrer

Nationals leader Matt Canavan is giving the concept of the political “ground game” a new twist in the Farrer byelection.

Canavan is literally camping out in the southern New South Wales electorate, despite the Nationals seemingly having no chance of victory on May 9, when the tussle is set to be between One Nation and Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe.

After spending a couple of nights camping earlier, last Saturday night saw Canavan in his swag at Hay, then at Griffith on Sunday and Monday nights.

With overnight temperatures around zero, he’s had to upgrade his sleeping bag – the old one was only suited to the benign temperatures of his home state of Queensland – and get a semi-tent structure for more protection.

Canavan says he sets up in caravan parks so he can shower and shave – as he says, on the campaign trail you have to look respectable in the morning.

He has a political metaphor for camping out. “Opposition should be uncomfortable,” he tells The Conversation. “[This says opposition] is not a permanent residence.”

Nationals candidate Brad Robertson is not sharing the camping experience.

Despite needing a miracle, Canavan refuses to write off the Nationals’ chances. With the vote on the right splitting between One Nation, the Liberals, the Nationals and micro candidates, Canavan says there is always the chance of coming up through the middle.

Poll shows One Nation and Independent Milthorpe almost level pegging on primary votes

A uComms poll done for Milthorpe on April 9-10 showed One Nation’s David Farley leading her by a whisker, 30.9% to 30.0%, on primary votes.

The electorate-wide poll of 1116 people, with an error margin of about 3%, had the Liberals’ Raissa Butkowski on 16.1% and the Nationals’ Brad Robertson polling 7.1%.

One Nation leads Milthorpe in the estimated two-candidate preferred vote 52.7-47.3%, based on respondents’ preferences.

The results show the dramatic extent to which the voters have deserted the Liberals. Asked how they voted last election, 41.4% said they voted for the Liberals’ Sussan Ley (her actual vote was 43.4%), while 23.1% said they voted for Milthorpe (her actual vote was 20%). Only 13% said they voted last time for One Nation. Some are misremembering – in fact One Nation received only 6.6% at the 2025 election.

People were also asked for their opinion of Donald Trump. Half (50.7%) had a “very unfavourable” opinion, with another 9.8% having an “unfavourable” opinion. Only 11.4% had a very favourable view of Trump and another 13.2% had a favourable opinion.

One Nation supporters were much more likely than average to have a favourable (26.6%) or very favourable (24.6%) attitude to Trump.

GetUp advertising campaign

Meanwhile, GetUp is launching an advertising campaign against One Nation in the electorate. It has produced a TV ad called Trump’s War, showing “the links between Trump and [Pauline] Hanson in light of the recent fuel crisis”.

Appealing for funds to finance the ad campaign, which will also include digital ads “targeted at the persuadable voters who will decide the race”, and billboards, GetUp said: “If One Nation wins Farrer, it will be a huge boost to their momentum and could change the political map of this country”.