View from The Hill: Angus Taylor circles Ley, as Liberals watch polling and negotiations with Nats

Sunday’s Newspoll is being keenly awaited by federal Liberals as leadership aspirant Angus Taylor contemplates the timing of a challenge to Sussan Ley.

With talks to try to get the federal Coalition together looking near collapse, Taylor danced around the leadership issue in a Sydney radio interview on Friday.

Some Liberal sources say whether there is a challenge as early as next week – the second week in the House of Representatives’ sitting fortnight – will likely depend on the polling and the outcome of the faltering negotiations with the Nationals.

Other sources discount the prospect because senators will be caught up in Senate estimates committees.

Quizzed on Sydney radio on Friday, Taylor said: “Of course I’ve been having discussions with colleagues about the future of the party.

"Look, there’s one thing we’re hearing from our supporters, the people who voted for us at the last election, the people we wanted to have vote for us at the last election and didn’t. It is a clear message from them: we must do beetter.”

If there is no imminent agreement on reunifying the Coalition, Ley is set to announce an all-Liberal frontbench, probably on Sunday.

Ley has demanded the three Nationals frontbenchers who defied shadow cabinet solidarity over the government’s anti-hate legislation should be off any combined frontbench for six months. The Nationals have now countered by suggesting all former Nationals shadow ministers should served a brief suspension. This is unacceptable to Ley.

The Liberal leader is in a no-win situation. She is under immense pressure to mend the Coalition. On the other hand some Liberals who support her leadership believe the two parties should stay apart. Also, some Liberals are eyeing the expanded opportunities for posts that a Liberal-only shadow ministry presents.

Ley’s determination to hold her hard line in the negotiations with the Nationals was undermined this week when former prime minister John Howard urged her to compromise.

Howard said both sides needed to “stop the nit-picking over minutiae”.

“Both sides have to […] concentrate on reforming the Coalition which is the political imperative that transcends all else,” he told The Australian.

“There’s no point in debating what has happened in the last two weeks and the priority must be the reforming of the Coalition.”

Previously Howard had been supportive of Ley’s tough position on the defectors.

The crisis around Ley’s leadership is playing out publicly in slow motion, with her supporters and her opponents in the party agreeing that it will inevitably come to a head, with only the precise timing still up in the air.

If he won the leadership, Taylor would likely quickly reunite the Coalition.

It had been originally thought Taylor did not want to challenge Ley until the budget session. But a fast-moving and chaotic situation, including the collapse of the Coalition, has changed things.

Last week the other leadership aspirant, Andrew Hastie, announced he would not run for the leadership, leaving the field to Taylor.