Octa broker's take on the upcoming NFP report

While typically issued on the first Friday of each month, this week's release has been brought forward due to the upcoming U.S. Independence Day holiday. The NFP report is traditionally considered to be the most significant piece of macro statistics and tends to generate considerable market impact.

The report offers critical insights into the health of the U.S. labour market, detailing job creation in the non-agricultural sector, unveiling the latest unemployment figures, and tracking changes in average hourly earnings. This data release has the potential to reshape U.S. interest rate expectations and steer investor sentiment, which is why the report is closely watched by market participants. The report will almost certainly affect the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar (USD) and trigger volatility across various financial instruments, including equity indices and commodities.

Previous report
The previous NFP report (published on 6 June) presented a somewhat mixed picture. While the headline figure, showing the number of jobs created, was above the market consensus, the preceding report was revised downward. At the same time, average hourly earnings grew faster than expected. Overall, the market interpreted the report as bullish for the DXY, which ended the day higher by 0.50%, while XAUUSD and EURUSD were down 1.22% and 0.45%, respectively.

Market Expectations
The NFP release arrives against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty and amplified volatility. Financial markets remain gripped by the persistent geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, alongside ongoing trade tensions between the United States and global partners. Indeed, despite the NFP's significance, the ongoing focus on global trade tariffs could partly limit its influence on market movements.

Current market positioning strongly suggests a widespread expectation for a weak report that would ostensibly provide further justification for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut later this year. This sentiment is clearly reflected in both consensus surveys and recent price action in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Thus, according to Reuters, analysts expect to see only a modest increase of approximately 110,000 jobs, the lowest projected figure since November 2024. Concurrently, the DXY is hovering near a two-year low, just shy of the 97.00 mark. The primary reason for the greenback's recent weakness has been the prevailing dovish monetary policy expectations. In fact, the latest interest rate swaps market data implies almost a 75% chance of a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September. Looking further ahead, the market currently prices in around 30% probability of a full percentage point reduction in the Fed's benchmark rate by July of next year.

Potential Outcomes
Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker, offers a perceptive outlook: 'Several factors, such as a weak dollar, dovish monetary policy expectations, and a rather pessimistic consensus for tomorrow's labour market report suggest that higher-than-expected NFP figures will likely have a disproportionately stronger impact on gold [XAUUSD] and EURUSD vs lower-than-expected figures. In other words, a bullish NFP report's upward pressure on the U.S. dollar will likely outweigh the bearish impact of a weaker-than-expected release'.

On balance, in case the NFP report reveals stronger-than-expected results—indicating a larger increase in payrolls and/or higher growth in average hourly earnings—the greenback could experience a substantial rebound, leading to sharp downside corrections for XAUUSD and EURUSD. Conversely, should the NFP report come out weaker than expected, gold and the euro may receive only a minor boost.

'I would treat any correction in gold as a buying opportunity', says Kar Yong Ang. 'XAUUSD remains in a structural uptrend due to strong fundamental reasons, so it is recommended to look for buying opportunities. Consider placing pending buy-limit orders on XAUUSD, particularly near the $3,280 level, in the event of a bearish reaction to the U.S. NFP report. Should a bullish reaction unfold, consider placing pending buy-stop orders on XAUUSD, specifically near $3,360'.

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