Daily BulletinDaily Bulletin

The Conversation

  • Written by The Conversation

Last night Malcolm Turnbull ousted Tony Abbott in a Liberal leadership spill, 54 votes to 44. As a result, Turnbull replaces Abbott as Australia’s Prime Minister.

I analysed the polling effect of past midterm changes in PM in a February article written shortly before the spill that month. That article found that neither Paul Keating nor Julia Gillard significantly improved the government’s standings following their replacements of Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd respectively. The one past example of a change in PM dramatically improving the government’s polls was Rudd’s replacement of Gillard.

Turnbull has an approval rating of 47% and a disapproval rating of 24% in an August Essential question on government ministers. Abbott, on the other hand, had a net approval of -33 in the latest Newspoll. Since a very unpopular leader is being replaced by a popular leader, the Coalition is likely to receive a substantial poll boost.

This change in PM is not like the replacement of Rudd with Gillard. Rudd was very popular from when he became Labor leader in December 2006 until early 2010, when his ratings dived partly as a result of abandoning the emissions trading scheme. When he was rolled, Rudd’s ratings had recovered somewhat, and Labor led by 52-48 in the Newspoll taken immediately before his demise. Abbott, on the other hand, has never been popular, either as opposition leader or PM, and most voters will be relieved that he has gone. Turnbull has been the people’s choice as Liberal leader since 2011.

In the longer term, Turnbull will find it hard to appease both the left and the hard right of his party at the same time. In particular, renewable energy is very popular with the general public, but the hard right is resistant, especially in relation to wind farms. Turnbull may be environmentally more progressive than his colleagues, but he is an economic conservative.

As long as Turnbull’s poll ratings are reasonable, and the Coalition remains competitive with Labor, he will remain PM. However, he is more vulnerable to bad poll ratings than Abbott was, because most of the party are ideologically to Turnbull’s right, and only voted for him to give themselves the best chance at the next election. If the Coalition’s poll ratings return to Abbott-era levels, Turnbull could be ousted fairly quickly, with Scott Morrison a possible replacement.

Julia Gillard rushed to an election soon after becoming PM, and this turned out to be a big mistake, as Labor barely scraped back into office with help from Independents. If Turnbull were to rush to an election, his honeymoon would probably end very quickly.

The Canning by-election, to be held this Saturday 19 September, is likely to be a much easier hold for the Liberals under Turnbull than Abbott. In fact, ReachTEL had a Canning poll in the field last night, with a large sample of 1130. They asked the usual question, which had the Liberals ahead by 52-48. They then asked for voting intentions if Turnbull was PM, and the Liberals led by 57-43. This change was not just caused by an increased Liberal primary vote, but also because Labor’s share of respondent allocated preferences dropped from 63% to 51% under Turnbull. Asked which leader would have a better chance of winning the next general election for the Coalition, 67% selected Turnbull and 33% Abbott; on this question Coalition voters split 50-50.

Authors: The Conversation

Read more http://theconversation.com/coalition-likely-to-receive-substantial-poll-boost-under-turnbull-47574

Memo to Australia's states: try renovating your tax system before asking for a new one

arrow_forward

The market is not our master — only state-led business cooperation will drive real economic recovery

arrow_forward

Why outer space matters in a post-pandemic world

arrow_forward

The Conversation
INTERWEBS DIGITAL AGENCY

Politics

Prime Minister Interview with Ben Fordham, 2GB

FORDHAM: Thank you very much for talking to us. I know it's a difficult day for all of those Qantas workers. Look, they want to know in the short term, are you going to extend JobKeeper?   PRI...

Scott Morrison - avatar Scott Morrison

Prime Minister Scott Morrison interview with Neil Mitchell

NEIL MITCHELL: Prime minister, good morning.    PRIME MINISTER: Good morning, how are you?   MICHELL: I’m okay, a bit to get to I apologise, we haven't spoken for a while and I want to get t...

Scott Morrison - avatar Scott Morrison

Prime Minister Interview with Ben Fordham

PRIME MINISTER: I've always found that this issue on funerals has been the hardest decision that was taken and the most heartbreaking and of all the letters and, you know, there's been over 100...

Scott Morrison - avatar Scott Morrison

Business News

SEO In A Time of COVID-19: A Life-Saver

The coronavirus pandemic has brought about a lot of uncertainty for everyone across the world. It has had one of the most devastating impacts on the day-to-day lives of many including business o...

a Guest Writer - avatar a Guest Writer

5 Ways Risk Management Software Can Help Your Business

No business is averse to risks. Nobody can predict the future or even plan what direction a business is going to take with 100% accuracy. For this reason, to avoid issues or minimise risks, some for...

News Company - avatar News Company

5 Ways To Deal With Unemployment and Get Back Into the Workforce

Being unemployed has a number of challenges and they’re not all financial. It can affect you psychologically and sometimes it can be difficult to dig your way out of a rut when you don’t have a job ...

News Company - avatar News Company



News Company Media Core

Content & Technology Connecting Global Audiences

More Information - Less Opinion