Daily Bulletin

The Conversation

  • Written by The Conversation Contributor

The Western Australian election will be held in early 2017. A WA Newspoll, conducted March to May from a sample of 1140, gives Labor an emphatic 54-46 lead, a 1 point gain for Labor since the October to December Newspoll. Primary votes are 42% for Labor (steady), 40% for the Liberals and Nationals (down 2) and 11% for the Greens (up 1).

31% (down 2) are satisfied with Premier Colin Barnett’s performance, while 58% (up 4) are dissatisfied, for a net approval of -27. Kevin Bonham said that no Premier with a Newspoll net approval this bad has ever been re-elected; they have been dumped either by their party or voters. Opposition leader Mark McGowan had a high net approval of +23, up 8 points.

If the Coalition wins the Federal election, I think the conservative WA government is doomed. Barnett’s only real chance of re-election appears to be a Federal Labor victory. This is because a few swing voters will vote for the party at state elections that is opposite to the one that controls the Federal government.

If the Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack aggregate is right, WA will have the biggest swing to Labor at the Federal election, partly because of the unpopularity of the state government.

Galaxy Queensland poll has LNP leading after Tim Nicholls becomes leader

On Friday 6 May, Lawrence Springborg was ousted in a partyroom vote, losing the Liberal National Party (LNP) leadership to Tim Nicholls by 22 votes to 19.

A Galaxy poll, taken 10-11 May from a sample of 1180, has the LNP leading by 52-48, a one point gain for the LNP since April. Primary votes are 44% for the LNP (up 3), 36% for Labor (down 1) and 9% for the Greens (down 1). Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s approval rating is 44% (down 7 since February) and her disapproval is 39% (up 7), for a net approval of +5. New opposition leader Nicholls starts with an approval of 25% and a disapproval of 30%.

Galaxy had previously been using an average of the last three state elections for its preference flows. However, Queensland has reverted to compulsory preferential voting. The Poll Bludger says the 52-48 LNP lead is sensible given Queensland-specific preference flows at the 2013 Federal election.

Clinton ekes out Kentucky win, but loses Oregon 55-45

Today, Hillary Clinton won Kentucky by 46.8-46.3 over Bernie Sanders, but was defeated in Oregon 55-45. She has lost three of the four May states, and barely won the fourth. These losses are best explained by demographics: all the May states are overwhelmingly white, and Clinton performs much better with black and Hispanic voters.

The effect of today’s primaries is that Clinton is likely to lose a net 8 delegates out of 116 decided. That leaves her with a pledged delegate lead of 272, with only 781 to go. Clinton will win a majority of the pledged delegates when the last states vote on 7 June (8 June Melbourne time). Her massive lead among superdelegates ensures she will be the Democratic nominee.

Authors: The Conversation Contributor

Read more http://theconversation.com/labor-has-big-lead-in-wa-but-lnp-leads-in-queensland-59441

Writers Wanted

How To Find The Right Emergency Plumber Lismore


Delivery rider deaths highlight need to make streets safer for everyone


The Conversation


Prime Minister Interview with Ben Fordham, 2GB

BEN FORDHAM: Scott Morrison, good morning to you.    PRIME MINISTER: Good morning, Ben. How are you?    FORDHAM: Good. How many days have you got to go?   PRIME MINISTER: I've got another we...

Scott Morrison - avatar Scott Morrison

Prime Minister Interview with Kieran Gilbert, Sky News

KIERAN GILBERT: Kieran Gilbert here with you and the Prime Minister joins me. Prime Minister, thanks so much for your time.  PRIME MINISTER: G'day Kieran.  GILBERT: An assumption a vaccine is ...

Daily Bulletin - avatar Daily Bulletin

Did BLM Really Change the US Police Work?

The Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement has proven that the power of the state rests in the hands of the people it governs. Following the death of 46-year-old black American George Floyd in a case of ...

a Guest Writer - avatar a Guest Writer

Business News

Nisbets’ Collab with The Lobby is Showing the Sexy Side of Hospitality Supply

Hospitality supply services might not immediately make you think ‘sexy’. But when a barkeep in a moodily lit bar holds up the perfectly formed juniper gin balloon or catches the light in the edg...

The Atticism - avatar The Atticism

Buy Instagram Followers And Likes Now

Do you like to buy followers on Instagram? Just give a simple Google search on the internet, and there will be an abounding of seeking outcomes full of businesses offering such services. But, th...

News Co - avatar News Co

Cybersecurity data means nothing to business leaders without context

Top business leaders are starting to realise the widespread impact a cyberattack can have on a business. Unfortunately, according to a study by Forrester Consulting commissioned by Tenable, some...

Scott McKinnel, ANZ Country Manager, Tenable - avatar Scott McKinnel, ANZ Country Manager, Tenable

News Co Media Group

Content & Technology Connecting Global Audiences

More Information - Less Opinion