The Coalition leads in Victorian DemosAU poll, with One Nation posting 21% support
- Written by: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
One Nation is just two points behind Labor in a Victorian state DemosAU poll, with the election in November. A federal Resolve poll has One Nation and the Coalition tied at 23% each with Labor well ahead.
The Victorian state election is in late November. A DemosAU and Premier National poll, conducted February 1–10 from a sample of 1,274, gave the Coalition 29% of the primary vote (down eight since an October DemosAU poll), Labor 23% (down three), One Nation 21% (not previously asked for), the Greens 15% (steady) and all Others 12% (down ten).
The Coalition led Labor by 53–47 after preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition. Even if Labor fell below One Nation on primary votes, Greens preferences would boost them back ahead of One Nation.
On this poll’s results, the Coalition would be likely to win a majority of the 88 lower house seats against Labor, but One Nation would win some seats that would otherwise go to the Coalition. The result could be a Coalition government dependent on One Nation support.
Labor Premier Jacinta Allan was at net -37 favourable, with 53% giving her a negative rating and 16% positive. Liberal leader Jess Wilson was at net +3 (27% positive, 24% negative). Wilson led Allan as preferred premier by 40–31 (former Liberal leader Brad Battin had led by 40–32 in October).
Crime was rated the most important issue by 30%, followed by cost of living on 29% and housing affordability on 12%.
By the November election, Labor will have governed Victoria for the last 12 years and 23 of the last 27. An “it’s time” factor may explain some of Labor’s bad polling.
Upper house voting intentions were 28% Coalition (down two since October), 20% One Nation (up nine), 19% Labor (down two), 14% Greens (steady), 5% Legalise Cannabis (up three) and 4% Animal Justice (up one).
All 40 upper house seats will be up for election in November using eight five-member electorates by proportional representation with preferences. The Coalition and One Nation would be favoured to win a combined majority.
Also in Victoria, a byelection will be needed in Nepean after Liberal MP Sam Groth resigned. At the 2022 state election, Groth defeated Labor in Nepean by 56.4–43.6, from primary votes of 48.1% Groth, 32.6% Labor and 8.8% Greens.
Federal Liberal leadership change and Resolve poll
Last Friday Angus Taylor was elected new federal Liberal leader, defeating former leader Sussan Ley in a spill of Liberal MPs and senators by 34–17. Ley has said she will resign from parliament, setting up a byelection in her seat of Farrer.
At the 2025 federal election, Ley defeated independent Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer by 56.2–43.8. The Liberal vs Labor two-party vote in Farrer was 62.9–37.1 to Ley. Primary votes were 43.4% Ley, 20.0% Milthorpe, 15.1% Labor, 6.6% One Nation and 4.9% Greens. The Nationals are likely to contest the byelection, so the main contenders are One Nation, Milthorpe, the Liberals and the Nationals.
A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers was conducted February 8–14 (in the days before and after the Liberal spill) from a sample of 1,800. It has been broken into a post-spill and pre-spill sample. The post-spill sample included pre-spill polling that asked how respondents would vote if Taylor replaced Ley.
The post-spill sample gave Labor 32% of the primary vote (up two since the January Resolve poll), the Coalition 23% (down five), One Nation 23% (up five), the Greens 11% (up one), independents 6% (down one) and others 5% (down two). In the pre-spill sample, One Nation had led the Coalition by 25–20 with other parties’ support similar.
No two-party estimate was given, but applying 2025 election flows to the post-spill sample gives Labor nearly a 54–46 lead over the Coalition, a three-point gain for Labor since January.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved two points since January to -20, with 55% rating him poor and 35% good. In her final poll as Liberal leader, Ley’s net approval slumped 15 points to -23. Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 38–22 (33–29 in January).
Pauline Hanson’s net likeability was +7, Liberal Andrew Hastie’s was +4, Taylor’s was +3, Nationals leader David Littleproud’s was -8 and Labor Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s was -8. On issues, 45% rated cost of living most important, with 10% for immigration.
The Liberals led Labor by 24–23 on keeping the cost of living low (29–26 in January). On economic management, there was a 26–26 tie (31–26 to the Liberals previously).
Pre-spill Morgan poll has Labor gaining
A national Morgan poll, conducted February 9–13 (before the Liberal spill) from a sample of 1,216, gave Labor 30.5% of the primary vote (up two since the February 2–8 Morgan poll), One Nation 25% (up 0.5), the Coalition 20% (down 2.5), the Greens 13% (down 0.5) and all Others 11.5% (up 0.5).
Labor led the Coalition by a blowout 58.5–41.5 on respondent preferences, a five-point gain for Labor. On 2025 election flows, Labor led by 55–45, a two-point gain for Labor. No Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate was reported.
Tasmanian DemosAU poll has Liberals down
A Tasmanian state DemosAU poll, conducted January 27 to February 12 from a sample of 1,071, gave the Liberals 35% of the primary vote (down six since an October DemosAU poll), Labor 23% (down one), independents 17% (up three), the Greens 15% (steady), the Shooters 4% (up two) and others 6% (up two). One Nation was not asked for as it is not yet a registered party in Tasmania.
Tasmania uses a proportional system so a two-party estimate is not applicable. Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net approval slid three points to +2, while Labor leader Josh Willie’s net approval was down two points to -7. Rockliff led Willie as preferred premier by 43–32 (46–34 previously).
Other politicians listed were Liberal Treasurer Eric Abetz (-21 net approval), former Labor leader Dean Winter (-23) and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff (-21). Winter’s net approval jumped ten points since October.
Upcoming UK byelection and US special elections
I wrote for The Poll Bludger last Thursday about a February 26 United Kingdom parliamentary byelection in a safe Labour seat and three United States federal special elections for the House of Representatives that will occur by August. Democrats are attempting to gerrymander Virginia’s 11 House districts for a 10–1 Democratic split.
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
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