Serious incidents in childcare centres are still rising. Why?

The number of “serious incidents” in Australian early childhood services – including long daycare – is increasing. According to a new Productivity Commission report, there were 160 such incidents per 100 services in 2024-25. This is up from 148 and 139 in the previous two years.

A serious incident is one that seriously compromises the health, safety or wellbeing of a child. This includes serious injury or illness requiring medical attention, any event where emergency services attended, a child going missing or being locked in or out of the premises. It can also include abuse or the death of a child.

The figures come amid continuing concern about safety in early childhood services around Australia. Last week, regulators reported a family daycare had been shut down after knives and poison were kept within reach of kids in Sydney; while in South Australia, the regulator warned of supervision “blind spots”.

Why are we seeing this increase? What does it mean for families and educators?

How do we get these figures?

Under the Education and Care Services National Regulations, services must report all serious incidents to the relevant state or territory regulatory authority.

So these Productivity Commission figures come via the national agency for childcare safety and quality (the Australian Children’s Education and Care Quality Authority).

In its most recent report in December 2025, the national agency reported an increase across almost every kind of serious incident. The most commonly reported incident type was “injury, illness, or trauma”, which accounted for 77.7% of serious incident reports.

Why aren’t we seeing a drop?

The latest figures predate the slew of recent child safety reforms across the sector. So it may take time for us to see a change in annual data reporting.

We also have numerous state and national inquiries still underway. And further reforms are yet to be implemented. This includes mandatory child safety and child protection training for all staff, volunteers, and students.

In fact, the increase is not a surprise. Data released by the national agency has shown a persistent increase in serious incident reports, which are currently up 62% from 2016-17 (the earliest available report on these figures). There have also been particularly marked increases over the last five years.

What is less clear is what is causing this increase and how to fix it.

Are people becoming more aware?

The latest rise may indicate the sector is becoming more transparent, as opposed to more dangerous.

With the recent increase in public scrutiny and subsequent policy changes around child safety – including shorter time frames for mandatory reporting and restrictions on the use of digital devices – services, educators, and even families may be more likely to report serious incidents when they occur.

If this is so, a stronger reporting culture would be a welcome outcome.

Or are services under stress?

On the other hand, Australian and international research shows safety risks increase when educators and services are operating under strain.

Our research shows staff in the early childhood sector face heavy workloads and unpaid hours. There are also longstanding concerns about increasing regulatory demands, high staff turnover and educator burnout.

What about management?

Research indicates management (or who is running a service) is a key factor when it comes to quality.

Although the national agency’s reports do not let us compare serious incident rates of for-profit versus not-for-profit services, for-profits tend to provide lower quality services for children, and have been less likely to improve their rating under the national quality framework.

On top of this, publicly available data from the third quarter of 2025 (the most recent we have), shows private for-profit services are more likely to be “working towards the national quality standard” on children’s health and safety than other early childhood provider types.

This is why the steady increase in large for-profit providers in Australia is a significant concern.

So is childcare safe or not?

Despite the awful revelations about abuse in the sector, the OECD notes that early childhood services are generally safer than un-regulated care. This includes care by relatives, babysitters or privately employed nannies. This is because services such as long daycare are regulated by a national quality framework and standards.

The difficulty is there is such variation in quality across the sector. Current regulatory systems also have significant gaps. For example, many services wait more than four years between assessment visits. In some states, time between visits can extend to ten years.

A 2025 independent report found several NSW services were on a secret government list as “very high risk” but were publicly rated as “meeting” national quality standards.

As of November 2025, families can now access new content on the Starting Blocks website to check the compliance history of their service. This includes when a service was last visited by a regulatory authority, and any formal breach notifications over the last two years.

Will the recent and upcoming reforms be enough?

The current debate about safety and quality are still largely reactive and risks-based. For example, shutting down unsafe providers and training educators to spot potential abuse.

We need more focus on the broader factors – such as educator working conditions, workforce quality and management capability – which research shows will lift quality and boost safety overall.

If services have well-trained staff and supportive working conditions, they are more likely to provide both safety and quality for children.