Likely final House seat outcome: 94 Labor, 44 Coalition, 12 Others

The ABC has called Labor wins in 93 of the 150 House of Representatives seats. The Coalition has won 43 seats, the Greens one and all Others 11, with two seats (Bradfield and Calwell) remaining undecided.

The Poll Bludger has documented the changes in the close seats. In Goldstein, Teal incumbent Zoe Daniel has surged back from a peak deficit of 1,472 votes to now trail Liberal Tim Wilson by just 292 votes on strong absents and declaration pre-polls after she lost postals by 61–39. But only about 800 votes remain, so Wilson will still win.

On Tuesday, the Liberal lead in Liberal-held Bradfield over a Teal candidate closed to just 59 votes, and the ABC uncalled a race they had called for the Liberal the previous day. On Wednesday the Liberal lead increased to 80 votes, but it’s now fallen back to 43 votes. About 420 votes remain to be counted. The Liberals will probably lead when all votes are counted, but there will be a recount.

The Liberal National Party has held Longman after declaration pre-polls failed to follow the trend to the left in other close seats. They now have an unassailable 335-vote lead over Labor.

In Australia’s preferential voting system, the top two candidates on primary votes are not necessarily the final two. The bottom candidate is excluded, and their votes are distributed to remaining candidates, and this continues until only two are left. During this process, the third candidate can pass the second, therefore making the final two.

So far the only interesting seat where this has occurred is Flinders, where Teal candidate Ben Smith passed Labor despite trailing in third on primary votes by 22.3% to 21.3%, with the Liberals well ahead with 41.2%. The Liberals defeated Smith in the final count by 52.3–47.7 to hold Flinders.

Calwell has 13 candidates. Primary votes are 30.5% Labor (down 14.3% since the 2022 election), 15.7% Liberals (down 8.1%), 12.0% for independent Carly Moore, 10.9% for independent Joseph Youhana, 8.1% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 6.9% for yet another independent.

The danger for Labor is that either Moore or Youhana overtake the Liberals on the distribution of preferences, then beat Labor at the final count on Liberal preferences. Friday is the last day for receipt of late postals. Once all votes are counted, the distribution of preferences can start. We should know the result in Calwell next week.

If Labor wins Calwell and the Liberals win Bradfield, the final seat totals will be 94 Labor out of 150 (up 17 from 77 out of 151 in 2022), 44 Coalition (down 14), one Green (down three), nine independents (down one) and two others (steady). By the UK’s method, this would be a Labor majority of 38 (25% in percentage terms).

Bad as this result is for the Coalition, they would be lucky to win three seats (Longman, Bradfield and Goldstein) by less than a 50.2–49.8 margin. The narrowest Labor win was in Bean (by 50.3–49.7 against an independent).

Turnout for the election is now 89.1%, and is likely to be over 90% once all votes are counted. National primary votes are 34.6% Labor (up 2.0%), 31.9% Coalition (down 3.8%), 12.1% Greens (down 0.2%), 6.4% One Nation (up 1.4%), 1.9% Trumpet of Patriots (down 2.1% from United Australia Party in 2022), 7.4% independents (up 2.1%) and 5.7% others (up 0.7%).

I explained previously that the electoral commission’s national two-party preferred count does not currently include “non-classic” seats where the major party candidates were not the final two. There will be a special count later in these seats between Labor and Coalition candidates.

The ABC’s two-party estimate is currently a Labor win by 54.9–45.1, while The Poll Bludger has Labor winning by 54.4–45.6. We’ll need to wait for two-party counts in the non-classic seats to resolve this difference.

In the Senate, nationally 86.8% of enrolled voters have been counted, only 2.3% behind the House count. There have only been minor changes to primary votes since last Friday’s article on the Senate, so my assessment is unchanged from that article.

Essential is the first pollster to return since the election, but it hasn’t done a voting intentions poll. In this national poll, conducted May 7–11 from a sample of 1,137, Anthony Albanese’s net approval jumped 14 points since the pre-election Essential poll to +11 (50% approve, 39% disapprove).

Former Liberal leader Peter Dutton, who lost his seat of Dickson at the election, slumped 18 points on net approval to -30. Voters still thought Australia was on the wrong track by 42–37 (52–31 before the election).

In this poll, the Greens and all Others did well with late deciders (those who decided who to vote for in the last few days of the election campaign). Cost of living was rated one of the top three issues by 87% on what decided their vote, including 53% who said it was the top issue.

Sussan Ley, who was elected Liberal leader on Tuesday, was preferred by 16% as Coalition leader, with Angus Taylor on 12% and Dan Tehan on 7%, with 45% unsure and 20% “none of the above”. Among those who voted for the Coalition, Taylor led Ley by 23–20.

By 58–42, voters thought Labor should stick to the policies it took to the election, rather than be more ambitious now that it has a strong majority.