China’s "Two Sessions" 2025 Government Policy Outlook Indicates Renewed Opportunities for Commercial Real Estate

The new study examines China's economic development goals and policy directions for 2025 as outlined in the Report on the Work of the Government delivered by premier Li Qing, and highlights five key government tasks that will impact China's commercial real estate market.

Sabrina Wei, Cushman & Wakefield's Chief Policy Analyst and Head of Research, North China, said, "We should note that 2025 is the final year of the current Five-Year Plan period. In the objectives and policy measures stated in the new Government Work Report we see a focus on stabilizing expectations, expanding domestic demand, and accelerating green transition. As well, targets to implement more proactive fiscal policy, scientific and technological innovation, and revitalization of assets all inject new structural opportunities into commercial real estate."

Boosting Consumption to Promote Retail Industry Expansion and Upgrading

The Government Work Report lists "vigorously boosting consumption" as the foremost major task for 2025. Given the uncertain external environment, tapping consumption potential and boosting domestic demand are viewed as crucial strategies to drive economic growth and to restore China's economy to sustained healthy growth. China's retail market is currently undergoing a period of change, where consumer pursuit of quality, social interaction, personalization and experience is becoming the mainstream. These demands are mandating retail operators to continue to grow and upgrade consumption scenarios.

Additionally, the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include consumer infrastructure has greatly stimulated investor interest in the retail industry. According to Cushman & Wakefield, commercial retail projects' share of total real estate investment volume grew from 10% in 2023 to 14.85% in 2024 (Figure 1), and this trend is expected to further continue in 2025.

Figure 1: Comparison of property transaction volume by sector in the Chinese mainland capital market, 2023–2024

New Productive Forces and Technological Innovation to Aid Structural Recovery in Office Demand

The Government Work Report emphasizes the continued development of emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and the low-altitude economy, as well as the cultivation of future industries including biomanufacturing, quantum technology, AI, and 6G technology. The value of the low-altitude economy, for example, is forecast to reach RMB850 billion in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of more than 30%.

China's high-tech industry has also begun to play a leading role on the global stage, with investors re-examining the value of Chinese technology companies. In the capital market, starting from the end of 2024, the performance of China's top ten technology companies has been notable. The stock price of China's top ten technology companies has grown by 57.39% from the end of 2023, as at the end of February 2025 (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Stock price growth trends of China's top ten technology companies and the seven American giants (base as at the end of 2023)

Over the past two years, downward economic pressures have led to a drop in office leasing demand across the Chinese mainland. Office rents have fallen, and vacancy rates have risen in many cities. The government's renewed efforts to promote development of the "platform economy" can effectively drive new employment and expand consumption. In turn, this will support growth in demand for office premises and industrial parks. In addition, in May 2024, the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau issued the Guidance on Banking and Insurance Industries Doing a Good Job in the Five Financial Tasks, which emphasized strengthening financial support for major national technological goals as well as for small and medium-sized technology enterprises. Cushman & Wakefield expects that office demand in the Chinese mainland through 2025 will grow compared to 2024, with office rental levels in some cities bottoming out and stabilizing in the second half of the year.

Special-Purpose Bonds to Accelerate Market Stabilization and Reactivation of Existing Assets

This year's Government Work Report includes "ensure stability in the real estate market and the stock market" in the overall requirements and policy orientations for economic and social development. The detailed discussion on the real estate sector remains in the objective titled "Preventing and Defusing Risks in Key Areas." Key points regarding real estate include continuing efforts to stabilize the property market, adjusting restrictive measures according to local conditions,

accelerating the renovation of urban villages and older housing, and fully releasing potential demand for first homes and improved housing.

The Government Work Report sets the allocation of local government special-purpose bonds at RMB4.4 trillion, an increase of RMB500 billion on last year. The funds raised from these special-purpose bonds are to be used for investment construction, land acquisitions and reserves, and the acquisition of existing unsold housing, as well as resolving local government arrears to enterprises. This policy signals a significant expansion in fiscal expenditure. Local governments' use of special bond funds to acquire developer land and completed projects is seen as key to restoring normalcy in the real estate market.

Guangdong Province has taken the lead in the bond project, issuing RMB30.7 billion in land reserve special bonds to repurchase idle land. As at February 22, the first batch of projects planned for idle land recovery exceeded 220 sites, with a total planned reserve price of more than RMB43 billion. The model may be promoted nationwide. This will help to revitalize inefficient land use, effectively alleviate the financial pressure of real estate companies, reduce market supply, and stabilize housing market prices. Additionally, the repurposing of reserved land can be optimized for urban land use.

As the government pays greater attention to the commercial office market, developers are expected to increase efforts to revitalize and renovate unfinished office buildings, together with older and inefficient office properties constructed in non-core areas. These measures are expected to partially ease supply pressures in the commercial office market.

Encouraging Foreign Investment to Lift En-Bloc Property Market Activity

The Government Work Report reiterates the need to promote orderly opening up in the internet and cultural sectors, expand opening up pilots in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, encourage foreign investors to increase reinvestment, and support participation in upstream and downstream industrial chain collaboration. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology data reveals that, by the end of 2024, 2,343 foreign enterprises had been approved to operate telecommunications businesses in China. Additionally, the 2025 China Business Environment Survey Report from the American Chamber of Commerce in China shows that nearly 70% of consumer industry respondents expect to increase investment in China in 2025. This reflects multinational companies' general willingness and confidence in continuing to invest in and to deepen their presence in China.

Accelerating the Green Transformation Brings ESG to the Center of Asset Value

The 2025 Government Work Report outlines a blueprint for China's high-quality development, providing a clear development path for corporate ESG practices and innovation. Against the backdrop of low-carbon transformation, practicing ESG concepts to form the core competitiveness of enterprises is a strategic choice to further promote sustainable and high-quality development.

Sabrina Wei, Cushman & Wakefield's Chief Policy Analyst and Head of Research, North China, added, "The 2025 Government Work Report will focus development strategies on the long-term transformation of China's national economy, rather than short-term risk responses. In the light of uncertainty in the external environment, the Chinese government has expanded fiscal and monetary support. The 'dual engines' of consumption combined with scientific and technological innovation will drive the recovery of the overall commercial real estate market. We expect the retail sector to directly benefit from policy dividends, while office and industrial park demand will gradually stabilize, and overall market activity should recommence growth. Asset revitalization and comprehensive management capabilities will be key to overcoming cyclical challenges."

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About Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global commercial real estate services firm for property owners and occupiers with approximately 52,000 employees in nearly 400 offices and 60 countries. In Greater China, a network of 23 offices serves local markets across the region. In 2024, the firm reported revenue of $9.4 billion across its core services of Valuation, Consulting, Project & Development Services, Capital Markets, Project & Occupier Services, Industrial & Logistics, Retail, and others. Built around the belief that Better never settles, the firm receives numerous industry and business accolades for its award-winning culture. For additional information, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com.hk or follow us on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/company/cushman-&-wakefield-greater-china).