KPMG: Government reserves remain robust, advocates for expanded asset management and innovation industries to boost economic growth

The Budget focuses on key areas such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), infrastructure investment, and innovative industries, creating new opportunities for high-quality economic growth in Hong Kong while further strengthening its international competitiveness.

The Hong Kong SAR Government has revised its 2024/25 Budget, projecting a consolidated deficit of HKD 87.2 billion. By the end of March 2025, Hong Kong's fiscal reserves are expected to reach HKD 647.3 billion, closely aligning with KPMG's estimates of HKD 89.7 billion deficit and HKD 645 billion in reserves, indicating that fiscal reserves remain relatively robust. The projected GDP growth rate for 2025/26 has been adjusted to between 2% and 3%, down from the previous year's forecast of 3.2%. KPMG attributes this revision to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a slower-than-expected decline in interest rates. To address these challenges, KPMG recommends that the government allocate more resources to high-growth sectors such as asset management and innovation, aiming to stimulate economic growth in Hong Kong and deliver benefits to the general public.

John Timpany, Head of Tax in Hong Kong, KPMG China, says: "In the Budget, the HKSAR Government has clearly positioned AI as the core driver for cultivating new quality productive forces, and is promoting its development through a series of policy measures, fully demonstrating Hong Kong's ambition as an international innovation and technology hub. We are pleased to see the Government leveraging the advantages of 'One Country, Two Systems' to actively establish Hong Kong as an international exchange hub for the AI industry, and strengthening the integration of scientific research and industrial applications through projects such as Cyberport's AI Supercomputing Centre, Hong Kong Microelectronics Research and Development Institute, and the soon-to-be-established Hong Kong Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Institute. This not only creates opportunities for local technology companies but also injects new momentum into the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, narrowing the gap with other leading jurisdictions."

Stanley Ho, Tax Partner, KPMG China, says: "To ensure the strategic infrastructure projects stay on schedule, KPMG believes that raising capital by issuing government bonds at a moderate pace is a wise move. We support the government's commitment to using bond proceeds exclusively for infrastructure investments, ensuring they are not directed towards recurring government expenditures. This disciplined approach, outlined in the new bond program, should keep the government debt-to-GDP ratio at a manageable level and protect Hong Kong's credit rating. We encourage the government to proactively explore ways to make infrastructure projects more cost-effective. Embracing technological innovations and encouraging public-private partnerships are two promising avenues for expense optimisation."

Alice Leung, Tax Partner, KPMG China, says: "We welcome the Financial Secretary's proposal to expand the classes of investments permitted under the family office tax regime. To make Hong Kong even more attractive to family offices, it makes sense to include digital assets and art as eligible investments. These are already common asset classes for family offices, so adding them to the regime could encourage more family offices to set up in Hong Kong. This would be a win-win, creating jobs and boosting demand across a range of professional services. Additionally, it is encouraging to see the government actively pursuing tax treaties with 17 jurisdictions – this is a significant step in supporting Hong Kong taxpayers investing overseas. We also applaud the government's initiative to attract more commodity trading activity to Hong Kong through a competitive 8.25% tax rate. These measures will inject vitality into the local market, enhance liquidity, and further solidify Hong Kong's role as an international financial centre."

Chi Sum Li, Head of Government & Public Sector in Hong Kong SAR, KPMG China, said: "We support the government's prioritisation of investment in developing the Northern Metropolis. The focus on key industries such as innovation and technology, high-end professional services, modern logistics, tertiary education, cultural, sports, and tourism in the area demonstrates a commitment to a diversified development blueprint. Meanwhile, the accelerated progress of projects like Kwu Tung North / Fanling North, along with the implementation of transport infrastructure including the Northern Link and Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Railway, will enhance connectivity in the region and lay a solid foundation for commercial and innovation technology development. We believe the development of the Northern Metropolis will inject new vitality into Hong Kong's economy and create better living and career prospects for citizens."

In terms of nurturing and attracting talent, KPMG welcomes the government's proposal to enhance the "New Capital Investment Entrant Scheme". It is encouraging to know the scheme has already received over 880 applications with an expected HKD 26 billion in investments. We suggest lowering the residential property price threshold from HKD50 million to HKD 30 million. This would open up the scheme to a broader range of talents looking to invest in Hong Kong real estate and we don't anticipate this change having a major impact on housing affordability for the general public. Additionally, the government can consider shortening the current seven-year waiting period for permanent residency applicants, to make the scheme even more attractive.

Amid fiscal constraints, the government has taken measures to control expenditure growth. For 2026/27 and 2027/28, the Financial Secretary announced a 2% annual reduction in the civil service, with an estimated reduction of approximately 10,000 positions by April 1, 2027. Additionally, a salary freeze for all personnel across the executive, legislative, judicial branches, and district councils has been proposed for 2025/26. KPMG believes that job cuts and the salary freeze are signals to the public that the government is closely monitoring its spending, as taxpayers would expect during a period of fiscal deficits. This demonstrates the Hong Kong government's commitment to prudent management of public finances.

In light of the fiscal deficit and the aging population, KPMG supports the government's proposed optimisation of the "HKD 2 Public Transport Fare Concession Scheme." The proposal maintains eligibility for individuals aged 60 and above but introduces a monthly cap of 240 trips. Additionally, for fares of HKD 10 or more, the subsidy will be adjusted to a 20% discount of the full fare. These measures aim to balance the travel needs of the elderly and the silver economy with smarter use of public funds. At the same time, this will enable the government to more accurately forecast related expenditures in the future.


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Celebrating 80 years in Hong Kong

In 2025, KPMG marks "80 Years of Trust" in Hong Kong. Established in 1945, we were the first international accounting firm to set up operations in the city. Over the past eight decades, we've woven ourselves into the fabric of Hong Kong, working closely with the government, regulators, and the business community to help establish Hong Kong as one of the world's leading business and financial centres. This close collaboration has enabled us to build lasting trust with our clients and the local community – a core value celebrated in our anniversary theme: "80 Years of Trust".