Poor ReachTEL for Labor, but Essential better
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne
This week’s ReachTEL was reported as showing a 50-50 tie, unchanged on last week. However, this was based on respondent allocated preferences, and the primary vote movements imply a 2 point gain for the Coalition by 2013 election preferences, to a 52-48 Coalition lead. Labor is not at 50-50 when trailing the Coalition 42.7-33.2 on primary...