Daily Bulletin

The Conversation

  • Written by Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

A Queensland Galaxy poll, conducted 2-3 August from a sample of 900, has Labor ahead by 51-49, a one point gain for the Liberal National Party since late April. Primary votes are 36% LNP (up 2), 35% Labor (down 1) and 15% One Nation (down 2). No figure is given for the Greens. The next Queensland election must be held by early 2018.

While voting intentions are relatively stable, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s approval rating slumped eight points to 39%, and her disapproval rose nine points to 44%, for a net approval of -5, down 17 points. This is Palaszczuk’s first negative net approval. Opposition leader Tim Nicholls had a net approval of -14, up four points.

A key assumption in this poll is that One Nation preferences will split evenly between the major parties, as they did at the 2016 Federal election. However, if One Nation preferences are better for the LNP, Labor could be in trouble.

The April Galaxy poll was taken shortly after Cyclone Debbie, and that event may have given Labor and Palaszczuk a boost that has now diminished.

I would like to see a pollster ask whether Queenslanders support or oppose their government’s approval of the Adani coal mine. In my opinion, this approval is bad political strategy for Labor, as it angers environmentally progressive voters. Those who want the coal mine to proceed are likely to be sceptical of Labor, so it will not win over many new voters.

Nationally, Turnbull’s moves to the centre on Gonski have not won the Coalition many new voters since people trust Labor more on education. Similarly, Queensland Labor’s embrace of Adani has not benefited them as people who put economic development ahead of environmental concerns trust the LNP more.

I think Labor would now be doing better had Palaszczuk rejected Adani at the start of her term. This would have pleased progressives, and the mine would probably have faded as an issue.

The FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate has Trump at 37.0% approval, 57.3% disapproval, for a net approval of -20.3. Trump has lost over three points of net approval in the last week, as polls reflect the effects of the defeat of Obamacare repeal legislation and chaotic personnel changes at the White House.

Nate Silver has a breakdown of strong and somewhat approval. 47% strongly disapprove of Trump, 11% somewhat disapprove, 16% somewhat approve and 20% strongly approve.

Trump won the 2016 election partly because he was seen as an anti-establishment populist who would “drain the swamp”. However, he has appointed many men with Wall St backgrounds to senior positions in his administration. Other Trump appointments are very right-wing Republicans.

Trump said he would replace Obamacare with “something terrific”, but he supported the Republican Congress’ proposals that would have gutted Medicaid (health insurance for the poor), and increased the number of uninsured by over 20 million.

In polling for the November 2018 midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans by 47.6-37.5 in FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate. A 10-point popular vote win would give the Democrats a clear majority in the US House. Furthermore, analyst Harry Enten says that the President’s party tends to lose ground as the midterms approach; the only exception was in 2002, due to September 11.

Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

Read more http://theconversation.com/queensland-galaxy-51-49-to-labor-but-palaszczuks-ratings-slump-82138

Writers Wanted

From 13 unis to 1: why Australia needs to reverse the loss of South Asian studies


Do vegan diets make kids shorter and weaker?


97% of Indigenous people report seeing negative social media content weekly. Here's how platforms can help


The Conversation


Prime Minister interview with Karl Stefanovic and Allison Langdon

Karl Stefanovic: PM, good morning to you. Do you have blood on your hands?   PRIME MINISTER: No, it's obviously absurd. What we're doing here is we've got a temporary pause in place because we'v...

Karl Stefanovic and Allison Langdon - avatar Karl Stefanovic and Allison Langdon

Prime Minister Scott Morrison delivered Keynote Address at AFR Business Summit

Well, thank you all for the opportunity to come and be with you here today. Can I also acknowledge the Gadigal people, the Eora Nation, the elders past and present and future. Can I also acknowled...

Scott Morrison - avatar Scott Morrison

Morrison Government commits record $9B to social security safety net

The Morrison Government is enhancing our social security safety net by increasing support for unemployed Australians while strengthening their obligations to search for work.   From March the ...

Scott Morrison - avatar Scott Morrison

Business News

What Is COVID 19 Risk Assessment for Vulnerable Workers and Why Your Business Needs it

During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments strongly advised people to just stay at home as a critical effort to stop the spread of the virus. This led to many businesses temporarily s...

NewsServices.com - avatar NewsServices.com

Where Does Australia Stand in the Global Green Energy Transition?

Renewable energy sources seem to be the solution for a less polluted environment, but the transition from fossil fuel is not that easy to make. After all, we still have entire industries that base...

NewsServices.com - avatar NewsServices.com

Elegant Media honoured as a Deloitte APAC Technology Fast 500 Winner

Elegant Media has been awarded a place in the prized 2021 Deloitte APAC Technology Fast 500TM. This recognition stands as a testament to Elegant Media’s dedication and success in producing outstandi...

Tess Sanders Lazarus - avatar Tess Sanders Lazarus