Coalition clings to small lead in latest Ipsos poll

The start of the election campaign has not shifted the two-party vote, with the Coalition continuing to lead Labor 51-49% in the Fairfax Ipsos poll published on Saturday.

When stated preferences are distributed, rather than allocating preferences on the basis of the last election, the two sides are tied on 50-50 in the poll, done from Tuesday to Thursday. This is also unchanged since the last poll, on May 5-7.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s net approval has improved while Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has lost some ground as preferred prime minister.

The poll of 1497 voters was done during the second week of an eight week campaign, with many voters still not engaged. Despite the closeness of this and other polls, those believing the Coalition will win the July 2 election has risen four points to 57%.

The Coalition’s primary vote is 43%, down a point; Labor is on 34%, a point up. The Greens are unchanged on 14%. The undecided vote is at 14%, a rise of four points.

Turnbull’s approval is steady on 48%; his disapproval is 38%, down two points. His net approval is plus ten, a rise of two points.

Shorten is on 40% approval, up two points; his disapproval is 46%, down three points. He has a net approval of minus six, an improvement of five points.

Turnbull leads as preferred prime minister by 47%, down four points, to Shorten’s 30%, up a point.