Vital Signs: for the best election predictions, look to the betting markets, not the opinion polls
- Written by Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW
It turns out that betting markets are quite good predictors, on average.www.shutterstock.comOpinion polls haven’t done too well in some important recent elections.
Polls failed to foresee the Brexit decision, and suggested Hillary Clinton would be elected president of the United States in 2016.
There’s good reason to think polls now have...
Daily Bulletin
