View from The Hill: Albanese plays ‘captain’s pick’ to maximise Labor’s election prospects in Tasmania

Anthony Albanese prides himself on his eye for a good candidate.

In 2020, when he was opposition leader, he drafted Kristy McBain to run for a byelection in the marginal NSW seat of Eden-Monaro. If Labor had lost the seat, Albanese’s leadership could have been in trouble. McBain, now a junior minister in his government, won narrowly.

In the 2022 election, he made a captain’s pick in the Western Australian seat of Pearce with candidate Tracey Roberts, who wrested the seat from the Liberals.

Now Albanese is playing godfather again, hoping that in Tasmania a clever choice of candidate might snatch a Liberal seat where the opposition has had a lot of trouble, and that another well-known face could shore up a marginal Labor seat where the ALP member is retiring.

Anne Urquhart, 67, is currently chief government whip in the Senate; she has been in parliament since 2010. Albanese prevailed on her to run, despite her tilt at the seat of Braddon being a long shot. The Liberals hold it by an 8% margin.

Despite the margin, Labor reckons in reality Braddon, while tough, is more winnable than it appears.

Last election, Labor’s candidate had all sorts of problems; as well, Jacqui Lambie had a runner in the field (which she is not expected to have at next year’s election). There was an anti-Labor swing on primary votes in Braddon of nearly 10%.

Since the election, the Liberals have had their own pain. The present Liberal member, Gavin Pearce, who has held the seat since 2019, is retiring at the election. Some time ago he reportedly said he would not run again if the Liberals re-selected Bridget Archer.

Archer, in the neighboring seat of Bass, is an outspoken moderate. Pearce is on the conservative end of the Liberals’ broad but not always harmonious church.

Archer was re-selected and Pearce did indeed decide against another run, citing the toll of the job and family reasons. The Liberals’ problems weren’t over, with a messy preselection following.

The other Labor candidate announced on Tuesday is Rebecca White, 41, who will run in Lyons. She is a former state leader of the party and her state seat is also Lyons. She says she will stay in the state parliament until the election is called.

The current federal member for Lyons, Brian Mitchell, is being managed by the party out of the seat. On a margin of under 1%, Lyons would be vulnerable if there was a swing against Albanese. Labor reckons the White name is the best insurance it can take out.

Albanese on Tuesday appeared at two news conferences, one in each electorate, to unveil his candidates. “I don’t mind saying I’ve encouraged both of them to run,” he said.