At the time of writing we don’t yet know who will win the US presidential election.
But we do know this for sure: Donald Trump will be able to win with less than half the votes cast. Put another way, Joe Biden will be able to lose even if he wins the popular vote.
Election analyst Nate Silver believes Biden would have to win by three to four percentage points to have a better than 50% chance of winning the presidency.
Authors: Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW