Politics with Michelle Grattan: Antony Green on how Farrer’s ‘breakout’ by-election will make history

Early voting is now in full swing for the coming Farrer election on May 9. The by-election is being framed as a temperature check of the right in federal politics, given the rise of One Nation and the collapse of the Liberal and National parties.

The competition in the southwestern New South Wales seat is mainly between a high-profile independent, Michelle Milthorpe, and One Nation’s David Farley. Key campaign issues include health, water management, climate projects, and the current oil shock and ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

In this podcast, we spoke to veteran election analyst Antony Green about why this by-election is so nationally significant, including ahead of Victoria’s coming state election.

We also spoke to Milthorpe and, for One Nation’s perspective, Barnaby Joyce. (Farley, who spoke about being One Nation’s local candidate when we visited Farrer last month, declined an interview.)

‘A complete diversion’ from history: Green

Antony Green has covered more than 90 Australian elections over nearly four decades. He highlighted how unusual this Farrer by-election is, contrasting it with generations of elections before it.

Historically, it’s significant. We’ve had a party system now for eight decades – a Labor Party, a Liberal Party, a National Party – they’re the ones that nearly always have competed to form government to win almost all seats.

But this by-election, it looks like a breakout: a contest between an independent and One Nation. That’s a complete diversion from the tradition of Australian political history.

It’s also significant for what’s going to happen at the next election, because Farrer is a very rural seat. It’s the sort of seat Labor rarely polls well in, and they’re not even contesting the by-election. If the Coalition parties can’t win a seat like Farrer […] what are their hopes of winning government at the next election?

Green said if One Nation wins this by-election, it would be their first victory in a federal lower house seat – and give them significant momentum nationally, especially leading up to November’s state election in Victoria.

I think winning Farrer would be a huge boost to One Nation. It would put every member for a rural or regional seat, give them a warning that One Nation is coming for them.

[…] It also portends what we might see at the Victorian election […] Perhaps One Nation will be the party that breaks Labor’s grip on northern and western Melbourne.

Support ‘from around the country’: Milthorpe

Independent Michelle Milthorpe, who’s running for Farrer for the second time, was not willing to be drawn on how much money her campaign had spent far, but said she’s been “overwhelmed” by individual donations.

There’s probably 98% of my donations have come from individual donors from Farrer and around the country […] I’ve got significantly more money than I did last time. So look, that’ll all be disclosed in the only way, that’s actually open and transparent, because I am independent.

[…] We wanted to put our best foot forward in this campaign and to compete equitably with other parties. Like, the [political] parties have had people from all over Australia here, and their staff, MPs from all around Australia here. I’m pretty confident they’re not doing it for free.

So these are other costs that aren’t being considered when people are asking me these questions […] We’ve got volunteers doing the work that other parties have staff doing.

Pressed on how much political crowdfunding group Climate 200 had donated, Milthorpe replied “$20,000” – and contrasted that with the high-profile support given to her opponents, such as billionaire Gina Rinehart’s support for One Nation.

I haven’t had Gina donate any money to my campaign. I haven’t had any gambling companies. I haven’t had any banks, or insurance, or anything like that. So yeah, I’m just really grateful to the ordinary Australians, who’ve gone out and put money in behind my campaign.

Read more: View from The Hill: Taylor defends putting One Nation ahead of Farrer independent as ‘least worst option’

‘Australians are changing their votes’: Joyce

Asked about One Nation’s rising popularity and controversies it’s faced during this campaign – notably the revelation that its Farrer candidate had flirted with Labor in the past – former Nationals leader turned One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce said there’s nothing new about people trying to bring One Nation down.

It’s just a litany of people who are trying to bring us down, and that’s not unusual. That has happened throughout the history of One Nation. And they grasp anything like, ‘oh, we’ll bring them down with this, we’ll bring them down with that’.

[…] We are under attack from every side because they are terrified of the fact that the Australian people have made a decision to change their vote. They don’t want that. It means things move out of their control. Even the bureaucrats, it means things are moving out of control. And they want to have control. They want two reins and one rein is the Labor Party and the other reins the Coalition. And if they don’t have those two reins, they’re unhappy with their horse.

Asked if Gina Rinehart had given any support to One Nation’s Farrer campaign, Joyce said he didn’t know.

I don’t know whether she is. I mean, I’ll absolutely welcome it if she is, absolutely. Because this is another thing. So we have travel companies [with] multiple, multiple hundred millionaires [that] fund the Greens. And that’s not a problem.

We’ve got Andrew Forrest, who supports with [Anthony] Pratt, the Labor Party, and that’s not a problem. We’ve got Pratt again, and other […] multiple millionaires who support the Liberal Party, but that’s not a problem.

But if someone supports the One Nation party, that’s somehow maligned and suspicious and all has to be brought up. I mean, people have a philosophical view and they back it in. I’d be more upset if no one believed in One Nation to the extent that they’d ever want to support us.

Read more: Politics with Michelle Grattan: why Farrer is a key test for One Nation vs the Coalition