Counts in Bradfield and Calwell become clearer, while Jacqui Lambie faces a possible problem in the Tasmanian Senate

Counting in several extremely close seats continues, but some results have become clearer. In Liberal-held Bradfield, Teal candidate Nicolette Boele has taken the lead, while the Calwell distribution of preferences indicates an independent is on track to pass the Liberals and benefit from their preferences against Labor. Meanwhile, Jacqui Lambie may have a problem in the Tasmanian Senate contest.

Labor has won 93 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the Coalition 43, all Others 12 and two remain undecided (Bradfield and Calwell). After Tuesday’s split between the Liberals and Nationals, the ABC has the Liberals on 28 seats and the Nationals on 15, with the Liberals to form the official opposition.

The Australian Electoral Commission has 18 Liberals, nine Nationals and 16 seats won by Queensland’s Liberal National Party. LNP members can caucus with either the Liberals or Nationals, so they are splitting 10–6 to the Liberals.

I will continue to use Coalition in my coverage of this election, as the Liberal and National parties contested the election as the Coalition. It would be difficult to split the LNP vote into its Liberal and National components.

In the close seats, Boele leads the Liberals by 43 votes in Bradfield. She had trailed by 43 votes before the final votes were counted on Monday. The Poll Bludger said the last 181 formal postals counted favoured Boele by 125–56, giving her 69% of that batch.

Of the just over 14,000 total formal postal votes counted in Bradfield, the Liberals have won by 56.4–43.6. But late postals are often much better for the left than early ones.

What’s happening now in Bradfield is a full distribution of preferences, in which candidates are excluded from the bottom up on primary votes. If the margin after this distribution is complete is under 100 votes, there will be an automatic recount.

In Goldstein, Teal incumbent Zoe Daniel’s late surge has fallen short, as she trails Liberal Tim Wilson by 135 votes with everything counted, in from a 292-vote deficit last Thursday.

As with Bradfield, there will now be a full distribution of preferences in Goldstein. If the margin after this distribution is under 100 votes, there will be a recount. Daniel could also request a recount, but even if there is a recount, Wilson is very likely to win.

In Labor-held Calwell, which has 13 candidates, final primary votes were 30.5% Labor, 15.7% Liberals, 11.9% for independent Carly Moore, 10.7% for independent Joseph Youhana, 8.3% for the Greens and 6.9% for independent Samim Moslih.

The danger for Labor is that either Moore or Youhana overtake the Liberals on the distribution of preferences, then beat Labor at the final count on Liberal preferences. The AEC has a page that is updated with each exclusion in the preference distribution.

After six exclusions, the totals are 32.8% Labor, 17.1% Liberals, 14.7% Moore, 12.1% Youhana, 9.9% Greens, 7.9% Moslih and 5.6% One Nation (to be excluded next). Analyst Kevin Bonham says Moore needs 7.5% more than the Liberals to make the final two, and 67% of overall preferences to beat Labor. For Youhana, these figures are 13.4% and 69%.

Lambie may have a problem in the Tasmanian Senate contest

I have previously covered the Senate count. There have only been minor changes to the primary votes since that May 9 article. The Poll Bludger has modelled the state Senate contests using 2022 election preference flows.

According to this model, Labor will win the last seat in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, but only narrowly in WA. In Tasmania, Jacqui Lambie and the Liberals would edge out Labor. As I wrote previously, this result would give Labor 30 of the 76 total senators, the Coalition 27, the Greens 11, One Nation two and others six.

For a state a quota is one-seventh of the vote or 14.3%. In Tasmania Labor has 2.48 quotas, the Liberals 1.65, the Greens 1.13, Jacqui Lambie 0.51, One Nation 0.35 and Legalise Cannabis 0.24. One Nation will be the last exclusion, and whichever of Labor, the Liberals or Lambie is last after One Nation’s preferences are distributed loses.

There’s evidence that One Nation’s preferences have become better for the Coalition at this election than in 2022. In Capricornia, which had a One Nation primary vote of 15.5%, the LNP share of overall preferences increased nine points since 2022 to 62%.

Lambie wants the salmon farming industry to stop farming in Macquarie Harbour and says they should move offshore. This stance could cost her preferences from One Nation and other right-aligned parties.

I expect One Nation and other right-wing preferences in Tasmania to go strongly enough to the Liberals to give the Liberals one of the last two undecided seats, with the final seat between Labor and Lambie.

Labor is pro-salmon farming, so perhaps Lambie could benefit from Greens and Animal Justice preferences (the Greens have a small surplus over one quota and Animal Justice has 0.09 quotas).

Tasmanian poll and upper house elections

A Tasmanian state EMRS poll, conducted May 13–17 from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor 31% of the vote (up one since February), the Liberals 29% (down five), the Greens 14% (up one), the Jacqui Lambie Network 6% (down two), independents 17% (up five) and others 4% (up one).

Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house elections, so a two-party estimate is not applicable. Incumbent Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s net favourability was down four points to +6, while Labor leader Dean Winter’s was down one to +5. Rockliff led Winter by 44–32 as preferred premier (44–34 previously).

Every May two or three of Tasmania’s 15 upper house seats are up for election for six-year terms. The Poll Bludger said Tuesday that current upper house standings are four Liberals, three Labor, one Green and seven independents. On Saturday there will be elections in Liberal-held Montgomery, Labor-held Pembroke and independent-held Nelson.

European elections wrap

I covered Sunday’s European elections in Romania, Portugal and Poland for The Poll Bludger. In Romania the centrist defeated the far-right candidate by 53.6–46.4, but the left had a dismal result in Portugal. I also covered recounts in the April 28 Canadian election and polls ahead of the June 3 South Korean presidential election.