ASIO boss expects more communal violence in worsening security environment in Australia

ASIO chief Mike Burgess has warned that over the next five years Australia’s security environment will become more dynamic, diverse and degraded, with “more security surprises” in the second half of the decade than in the first.

In his Annual Threat Assessment delivered on Wednesday night, Burgess predicted more communal violence attacks and foreshadowed Australia’s defence system would face greater threats from espionage, foreign interference and potentially sabotage.

The situation had prompted him to take the unusual step of declassifying details of the security outlook covering the coming five years.

With an “unprecedented number of challenges, and an unprecedented cumulative level of potential harm, Australia has never faced so many different threats at scale at once,” he said.

“Many of the foundations that have underpinned Australia’s security, prosperity and democracy are being tested: social cohesion is eroding, trust in institutions is declining, intolerance is growing, even truth itself is being undermined by conspiracy, mis-and disinformation.

"Similar trends are playing out across the Western world.

"Australia is facing multifaceted, merging, intersecting, concurrent and cascading threats. Major geopolitical, economic, social and security challenges of the 1930s, 70s and 90s have converged. As one of my analysts put it with an uncharacteristic nod to popular culture: everything, everywhere all at once”.

Burgess said ASIO was empowered to investigate seven heads of security:

• espionage
• foreign interference
• politically motivated violence (which includes terrorism)
• the promotion of communal violence
• sabotage
• attacks on Australia’s defence system, and
• serious threats to border integrity.

“Three of our heads of security are already flashing red: espionage, foreign interference and politically motivated violence,” Burgess said.

ASIO expected in the next five years the promotion of communal violence, sabotage and attacks on the defence system could join them.

Burgess did not envisage any immediate raising of the national threat level, which puts an act of terrorism at “probable”.

But he said “politically motivated violence is raising the temperature of the security environment and making acts of terrorism more likely”.

At the same time, he stressed that none of last year’s incidents in Australia came from an offshore group and “our greatest threat remains a lone actor using an easily obtained weapon”.

“Of all the potential terrorist matters investigated last year, fewer than half were religiously motivated. The majority involved mixed ideologies or nationalist and racist ideologies.

"Almost all the matters involved minors. All were lone actors or small groups. Almost all the individuals were unknown to ASIO or the police and it is fair to say they allegedly moved towards violence more quickly than we have seen before.

"Importantly, none of the attacks or plots appear to be directly inspired by the conflict in the Middle East or directed by offshore extremists”.

On the promotion of communal violence, Burgess said “I am concerned these attacks have not yet plateaued”.

Promoting communal violence refers to “activities that are directed to incite violence between different groups in Australia, so as to endanger the peace”.

Burgess anticipated “nationalist and racist violent extremists to continue their efforts to ‘mainstream’ and expand their movement.

"They will undertake provocative, offensive and increasingly high-profile acts to generate publicity and recruit. While these activities will test legal boundaries, the greatest threat of violence comes from individuals on the periphery of these organised groups.

"I remain concerned about young Australians being caught up in webs of hate, both religiously and ideologically motivated.

"In the polarised, grievance-rich environment I’m describing, social cohesion will remain strained and we can expect spikes in communal violence.”

Burgess said the Middle East war “has not yet directly inspired terrorism in Australia, but it is prompting protest, exacerbating division, undermining social cohesion and elevating intolerance. This, in turn, is making acts of politically motivated violence more likely.”

The normalisation of violent protests lowered the threshold for potentially violent acts.

“Narratives originally centred on ‘freeing Palestine’ expanded to include incitements to ‘kill the Jews’. Threats transitioned from harassment and intimidation to specific targeting of Jewish communities, places of worship and prominent figures.

"Looking forward, targets of community violence are likely to be broad, depending on the perceived grievance, and will not be limited to nationality, race, culture, religion or gender.

"A hyper-connected world will allow political tensions or conflicts overseas to resonate quickly in Australia, spread by social media and online echo chambers, inflamed by mis- or disinformation”.

Burgess said more traditional distinctions between extremist motivations were breaking down.

Individuals were cherry-picking ideologies to create hybrid beliefs. For example, ASIO had found one person who was apparently motivated by Islamic State propaganda and neo-Nazi propaganda. Another described himself as a left-wing environmentalist aligned with Adolf Hitler.

Burgess said while he was troubled by the breadth of security threats, he was more concerned about their depth.

“More specifically, the depths some regimes are willing to plumb in pursuit of their strategic interests. This is why we assess the security environment is becoming more degraded.”

“A small number of authoritarian regimes are behaving more aggressively, more recklessly, more dangerously. More willing to engage in what we call ‘high harm’ activities.

"Russia’s brazen acts of sabotage in Europe show authoritarian regimes are willing to use a wider range of tools and tactics to coerce, intimidate and damage perceived adversaries. As a supporter of and supplier to Ukraine, it is conceivable Russia could also target Australia for sabotage.”

Australia was not immune to hostile states such as Iran undertaking “acts of security concern” in Australia or the near region.

“Whether such acts serve an internal interest, or a form of retaliation against Israel or our allies, we need to remain alert and responsive to these evolution.”

ASIO had identified at least three different countries plotting to harm people living in Australia.

In one case, a foreign intelligence service wanted to silence an Australia-based human rights activist and tried to trick them into visiting a third country where they would encounter an “accident”. ASIO foiled the plot.

In another case, a different hostile foreign intelligence service wanted to harm and possibly kill one or more individuals on Australian soil. This too was foiled.

“Beyond those egregious examples, multiple foreign regimes continually attempt to monitor, harass, intimidate and coerce cooperation from Australians and those who call Australia home. This includes trying to strong-arm people to report on other members of their diaspora community, threatening perceived dissidents and their family members with violence, and coercing people in Australia to return to the country of their birth to face questioning or charges – or possibly worse.”

On threats to Australia’s defence system, Burgess said multiple countries relentlessly sought information on our military capabilities.

“AUKUS will remain a priority target for intelligence collection, including by countries we consider friendly.

"ASIO has identified foreign services seeking to target AUKUS to position themselves to collect on the capabilities, how Australia intends to use them, and to undermine the confidence of our allies.

"By 2030, as the submarine project matures, intelligence services are more likely to focus on foreign interference to undermine community support for the enterprise and potentially sabotage if regional tensions escalate.”