Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 15–21 from a sample of 1,515, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one), 9% One Nation (up two) and 10% for all Others (steady).

Albanese’s net approval was up two to -20, with 56% dissatisfied and 36% satisfied. Dutton’s net approval was up two to -8. Albanese led Dutton by an unchanged 42–39 as better PM.

By 77–23, respondents supported the proposed social media ban for children under 16, a large increase in support from 61% in August.

In a separate YouGov poll that was conducted in late October, by 59–41 voters opposed replacing King Charles with an Australian president as head of state. Now 43% (up eight since September 2023) say Australia should remain a constitutional monarchy after the king passes away.

Most royals were regarded far more positively than Australia’s politicians. Of prominent politicians, Lidia Thorpe was at -45, Adam Bandt at -14, Pauline Hanson at -13, Tanya Plibersek at -4, Penny Wong at +2 and Jacqui Lambie at +7.

This YouGov poll and other polls in this article suggest little movement in the last two weeks, and it’s still roughly tied at 50–50. However, the improvement in economic sentiment may help the government.

Essential poll: Labor regains lead

A national Essential poll, conducted November 13–17 from a sample of 1,206, gave Labor a 48–47 lead including undecided, (49–47 to the Coalition in early November). Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one), 30% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (down two), 2% UAP (steady), 8% for all Others (steady) and 5% undecided (steady).

Albanese’s net approval was down one since October to -5, with 48% disapproving and 43% approving. Dutton’s net approval fell five points to +1, indicating the October sample was pro-Dutton.

By 48–35, respondents thought Australia was on the wrong track, but this was a big drop for wrong track since October (a 52–30 lead). In Essential’s monthly tracking of this question, it’s wrong track’s worst net position since May 2023.

The Guardian reported that for the first time since October 2023, more said they were financially comfortable (51%) than said they were struggling (49%). Better perceptions of the economy should help Labor.

On addressing climate change, 37% (down one since March) thought Australia is doing enough, 33% (down two) not doing enough and 19% (up one) doing too much.

Freshwater poll: Coalition’s primary slips

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted November 15–17 from a sample of 1,046, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged from October. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one) and 16% for all Others.

The primary vote movements suggest a one-point gain for Labor after preferences. Rounding explains why Labor didn’t gain.

Albanese’s net approval dropped three points to -17, with 50% unfavourable and 33% favourable. Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -4. Albanese maintained a one-point lead as preferred PM by 43–42.

Cost of living was the top issue, with 77% saying it was important, up five points since October. The Coalition’s lead over Labor on this issue dropped two points to 12. The Coalition’s lead on economic management was up a point to 17.

By 47–36, respondents favoured Dutton over Albanese for being best to negotiate with Trump in Australia’s best interests.

On the effects of Trump’s election, by 55–28 voters thought the world would be less safe rather than safer. By 60–10, they thought the world would be less likely rather than more likely to achieve the net zero by 2050 emissions reduction target. By 42–27, they thought the Australian economy would be weaker rather than stronger.

Morgan, DemosAU and Redbridge polls

A national Morgan poll, conducted November 11–17 from a sample of 1,675, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since the November 4–10 Morgan poll.

In the November 18–24 Morgan poll (1,663 sampled), Labor regained the lead by 51–49, a two-point gain for Labor since November 11–17.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 31.5% Labor (up 2.5), 12.5% Greens (down one), 6.5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (up one) and 4% others (down 0.5).

The headline figure uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor led by 51.5–48.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor. By this measure, the November 11–17 poll was the worst Morgan poll for Labor since August.

A national poll by new pollster DemosAU, conducted November 19–21 from a sample of 1,038, had a 50–50 tie, from primary votes of 38% Coalition, 32% Labor, 12% Greens, 7% One Nation and 11% for all Others. This poll used online methods.

A national Redbridge poll , conducted November 6–13 from a sample of 2,011, had a 50–50 tie, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since an August Redbridge poll. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 34% Labor (up one), 11% Greens (down one) and 16% for all Others (down one).

By 61–11, voters thought Albanese had given Qantas preferential treatment over Qatar Airways. On the Greens, 38% used one of two negative statements to describe them and 29% used one of three positive statements, with 14% opting for “the Greens are a party of protest and disruption”.

Irish election and US near-final results

I’ve been following the counting in Friday’s Irish election for The Poll Bludger. A conservative governing coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and some others is the likely outcome, with support for the left-wing Sinn Féin and the Greens slumping since 2020.

In near-final results from the November 5 US election, Donald Trump won the national popular vote by 49.8–48.3 over Kamala Harris. Republicans won the House of Representatives by a narrow 220 seats to 215 for Democrats and the Senate by 53–47. Recent European elections were also covered.

Labor gains in Tasmanian EMRS poll

A Tasmanian EMRS poll, conducted November 5–14 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 35% (down one since August), Labor 31% (up four), the Greens 14% (steady), the Jacqui Lambie Network 6% (down two), independents 11% (down one) and others 3% (steady).

Tasmania uses a proportional system, so a two-party estimate isn’t applicable. Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led Labor’s Dean Winter as preferred premier by 43–37 (45–30 in August).

In a new question on leaders’ favourability, Rockliff was at +15 (37% favourable, 22% unfavourable), while Winter was at +14 (25% favourable, 11% unfavourable).

SA Black byelection final result

Labor gained Black from the Liberals in South Australia at the November 16 byelection by a 59.9–40.1 margin, a 12.6% swing to Labor since the 2022 SA state election. Primary votes were 47.9% Labor (up 9.7%), 34.1% Liberals (down 16.0%), 13.1% Greens (up 1.3%) and 5.0% Australian Families (new).